Buy Low, Sell High

Human nature repeats itself in the stock market and now the real estate market. Prices are at their lowest in 2 years and more buyers than not won't pull the trigger. The hesitation to buy at these great prices is prevalent. The market upswing will invariably occur after the prices increase. Whether its stocks or homes, those brave souls that start the movement by buying at the bottom create their own success and take the largest return.

We've just finished our first really slow summer season of the past 5 years. There's a huge excess of inventory. There are bargains to be had and deals to be made. Make offers now.

Interest rates haven't risen yet. If you're a credible buyer, if you can secure a loan, as a buyer to a seller, you are golden.

The time of seller capitulation is here. This may be the best buying opportunity that we've seen in our market in years.

Gainesville Median Price Difference Back in the Positive

"Despite continued large inventories of homes in the Gainesville area market, the median price difference was back in the positive in April after a rare dip in March."

http://gainesville.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070526/LOCAL/705260371/-1/today

How low will you go?

Recent article of interest:

How low will you go? Some interesting advice from local agents.
http://gainesville.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070506/DAYBREAK/705050307/-1/today

If You're in the Market for a New Home:
http://www.parade.com/articles/editions/2007/edition_05-06-2007/New_Home

How to Make Your Home Sell Faster:
http://www.parade.com/articles/editions/2007/edition_05-06-2007/10_Tips

Is it Time to Buy or Sell?
http://www.parade.com/articles/editions/2007/edition_05-06-2007/ABuy_or_Sell

The news isn't all bad - especially in Gainesville

(Excerp from the International Herald Tribune)

"Statewide, condo sales fell 32 percent in March and single-family existing homes were off 28 percent compared with the same period a year ago, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.

Yet some smaller cities are faring better than large ones. Jacksonville and Gainesville in the north, for example, which did not experience rampant overdevelopment, have not felt the impact of the downturn as much as has southern Florida, where high-rise condo construction was largely fueled by speculators. "

Click here for complete article: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/07/business/florida.php

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Gainesville Home Prices Down

(Gainesville Sun, April 25, 2007)

Median home prices in Gainesville area dipped in March, with industry watchers pointing to high inventories and dropping prices for two- and three-bedroom homes.

Median home prices in the Gainesville area took a rare dip in March, with industry watchers pointing to high inventories and dropping prices for two- and three-bedroom homes.

The median for existing single-family homes in the Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area, consisting of Alachua and Gilchrist counties, was $206,600, the Florida Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. That's down 5 percent from a year ago at $218,600.

The median is the middle number with half the homes selling for more and half for less.

Sales were down 22 percent from a year ago, from 298 in March 2006 to 233. Statewide sales were down 28 percent and the median down 4 percent to $236,000.

Nationwide sales of existing homes were down 11 percent from a year ago and the median price down 0.3 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. February to March sales were down 8.4 percent, the largest one-month decline since January 1989, reflecting bad
weather and increasing problems in the subprime mortgage market, The Associated Press reported.

Realtor Ben Curry of RE/MAX said local inventories are outpacing sales and driving down selling costs. From March 15 to April 15, 665 new homes came on the market, but only 275 sold, according to numbers Curry provided from the Multiple Listings Service for Alachua County. At that rate, a total inventory of 2,504 homes would take nine months to sell, if nothing new came on the market.

Another factor driving down costs are 731 vacant homes on the market, a 2. month inventory with sellers anxious to sell, Curry said.

Curry said he uses such numbers to convince stubborn sellers that they can lower prices now or later.

The MLS listings also show that average costs for two- and three-bedroom homes are down from a year ago, while four- and five-bedroom costs are up, according to Gene Ritch, executive vice president for Coldwell Banker/M.M. Parrish Realtors

Ritch said March's median decrease is the first he remembers. In a small statistical sample like Gainesville, he said the numbers could be right back up in April.

He said local sales are still strong despite the comparison to 2006.

"All these flippers got into the market, all these investors trying to make a quick dollar," Ritch said. "When you compare to 2006, it doesn't look that good, but when you compare to 2004-2005, we're getting back into that line that we should have been in of that 6 percent increase or so each year."

While nationwide sales plunged from February to March, they were up 25 percent in Florida and 27 percent in Gainesville, validating a survey earlier this year by the University of Florida's Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies.

Center Director Wayne Archer pointed to population growth, relatively good employment and low interest rates for sustaining the Florida and
Gainesville markets.

Condominium sales were down 33 percent in Gainesville - 68 compared to 102 a year ago - while the median price was up 8 percent to $162,000. Statewide condo sales were down 32 percent with the median up 2 percent to $208,800.

Has the Market Hit Bottom?

A University of Florida study suggests the state's single-family residential housing market has bottomed out.

"If you're thinking of buying a house, there's probably not much to be gained by holding out at this point," said Wayne Archer, director of UF's Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. "It doesn't look like prices are going to fall anymore."

The quarterly survey of real estate industry professionals completed in January shows the share of respondents observing a drop in single-family housing prices has dipped, while a growing number find prices staying even with inflation.

"We see that as a benchmark," Archer said. "When prices maintain the same level as inflation, then we're probably in some kind of equilibrium. It indicates the market is stabilizing."

The exception is condominiums, which Archer said are overbuilt and prone to speculative and naïve investors.

But the overall news is good - Archer pointed out the most recent results reflect the first time in the UF survey's five-quarter history that the buyers' investment outlook for residential development has brightened. It declined for the first three surveys and was flat for the fourth survey at the end of October, starting to rise only in this latest survey, he said.

Also, because of the dominance of single-family housing, Archer said the latest findings have far-reaching and potentially optimistic implications for the state's real estate industry.

"You can't get away from the fact that the single-family housing market is the single largest driver of the real estate market," he explained. "Most brokers and real estate agents are dealing with single-family housing. Most lending is for single-family housing. And home furnishings are driven by single-family housing. So when it stabilizes, that's important."

Archer pointed out a restricted supply of land for residential development meant there was less overbuilding than there might otherwise have been.

Condos did not have this land restraint, which is one reason they are overbuilt, he said.
At the same time, condos are prone to strong speculative swings because they are considered a relatively easy commodity to exchange - it's not difficult to acquire them in multiple units or to buy contracts on them, he said.

For the survey, UF's Survey Research Center questioned 318 industry executives, real estate lawyers, market analysts, title insurers, financial advisers, market research economists, real estate scholars and other professionals in the field.

The last survey had 183 respondents.